JET GPA Calculator

JET (Joint Estimate Trajectory) is an advanced GPA planning tool built into the Dashboard. It analyzes grade history, assignment composition, category weights, and trend data to find the most efficient path to a target GPA.

Accessing JET

Three ways to open JET:

  1. Click the Goal GPA Possibility button in the Dashboard header toolbar.
  2. Click the Current Year GPA card.
  3. Click the Cumulative GPA card.

All three methods open the JET section and smooth-scroll to it. The GPA input field is auto-focused.

How It Works

Enter a target GPA (e.g. 4.2) and click Calculate. JET runs the following analysis:

1. Per-Course Trend Analysis

For each cached course with grade history (2+ snapshots):

  • Linear regression on the 8 most recent snapshots to compute trend direction and rate (e.g. +0.09%/wk).
  • R-squared value indicates trend reliability (0 = noise, 1 = perfectly linear).
  • Grade variance measures volatility (standard deviation of recent grades).
  • Projected end-of-quarter grade extrapolated from the trend line.

2. Target Calculation

For each course, JET determines:

  • The letter grade tier needed to reach the target GPA.
  • The minimum percentage required (e.g. 97.0% for A+).
  • The gap between current grade and target.
  • Per-category analysis of what score averages are needed on remaining work.

3. Probability Heuristic

A 9-factor heuristic scores each course's likelihood of reaching its target (0.03 to 0.94):

Factor What it measures
Tier-jump distance How many letter-grade tiers need to be crossed
Trajectory projection Whether the trend line already reaches the target
Historical improvement Average grade change per snapshot
Trend direction Rising/stable/falling (weighted by R-squared)
Historical peak Whether the student has ever reached this level before
Grade variance Higher variance means more potential for upside
Category headroom Room for improvement in the heaviest categories
Grade mobility How much one perfect assignment can move the overall grade
Ungraded work Potential upside from pending submissions

Probability is displayed as a colored badge: Likely (green, >= 75%), Possible (yellow, >= 45%), or Challenging (red, < 45%).

4. Minimum Effort Plan

JET selects the smallest set of courses that need improvement and sorts them by effort required. The plan shows:

  • Current GPA to Target GPA with a joint probability score.
  • Per-course rows with current %, target %, and the required grade change.

Courses already at or above their target tier are listed under "Other courses" and marked as "Maxed" if at the highest tier.

Course Cards (Expanded)

Click any course row to expand it. The expanded view shows:

Grade Trajectory Chart

A 340x130px SVG chart showing:

  • Historical grade points (solid line with dots).
  • Projected trend (dashed line extending 4 snapshots forward).
  • Confidence band (shaded area representing plausible grade range). Width is derived from grade variance and R-squared: stable courses get tight bands, volatile courses get wider ones. The band grows over time using square-root uncertainty scaling.
  • Target line (accent-colored horizontal line at the required percentage).

Advice

Quick actionable bullets including:

  • Best action: the single category where improvement has the highest impact, with the score needed.
  • Pending work: if there are ungraded assignments, the potential upside is estimated.
  • Projection: whether the student is on track, the estimated date of reaching the target, or advice to reverse a falling trend.

Full Analysis (toggle)

Behind a "Show analysis" toggle, a detailed breakdown including:

  • Trend detail with R-squared confidence.
  • Volatility assessment.
  • Per-category focus areas with exact score targets.
  • Weak-spot detection (categories with the most room for improvement).
  • Last 30-day momentum.
  • Actionable synthesis.

Categories Table

A table showing each grading category with:

  • Category name and current average.
  • Weight percentage.
  • Bar visualization of the current score.
  • Target average needed to reach the course target.

Per-Course Target Override

Click the target percentage in any course row to edit it. This overrides the auto-calculated target for that specific course, letting you explore alternative strategies (e.g. aiming higher in one course to compensate for another).

Intelligence Summary

At the top of the JET results, a summary panel shows:

  • Rising/falling course count (e.g. "4 rising, 2 falling").
  • Warning courses: courses with a falling trend that may drop a grade by end of quarter.
  • On-track courses: courses already projected to hit their target.
  • Best move: the single highest-impact action across all courses.

Loading Computation

During the brief loading period before JET results appear, the engine pre-computes:

  • Confidence band parameters (grade variance, R-squared) for each course's trajectory chart.
  • Projected end-of-quarter grades based on trend extrapolation.
  • Category mobility analysis (impact per perfect assignment).

This data feeds into the charts, advice, and probability calculations displayed in the results.